Modeling deforestation in the state of Rondonia

Abstract

This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondonia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondonia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agencia Ambiental do Estado de Rondonia (Rondonia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondonia's native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondonia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.