COVID-19 OUTBREAK in INDIA-Flattening the Curve and Raising the Line

Abstract

This paper evaluates the data of the Covid-19 infected, recovered, and death cases, as well as the data of the hospital beds, ICU unit occupancies from 14 March 2020 to 7 August 2020 for the top 5 affected the Indian States. The modified SEIR model used here assesses the effectiveness of the measures taken by the Government in containing the virus spread by varying the basic reproduction number for every 20 days following the first 40 days based on the containment measures taken by the Government and reverse calculating the other SEIR parameters. The result confirms that the measures have helped to contain the virus spread in meeting the health care capacity line in states like Delhi, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra. States like Andhra Pradesh need further containment actions and increased health care capacities if the current trend continues.