Cambio Climático y agricultura en la Región Tierra Caliente de Michoacán, escenarios 2025-2075

Abstract

Agriculture is an activity highly sensitive to climatic variations (droughts, frosts, floods, etc.) and to the weather. The objective of this book was to analyze the socioeconomic and agricultural vulnerability in the drough Mexican tropic, called Region “Tierra Caliente” (Hot Land) based on the risks elements analysis and its relation with agricultural production, the climatic variables effects and climate change future scenarios. Regional vulnerability was evaluated in social, economic and productive aspects through vulnerability indexes. For climate analysis and climate change scenarios, CLIC-MD, RHtestV4 and LARS scenarios A2 and A1B were used for scenarios 2025, 2050 and 2075. For the social, economic and productive aspects, were constructed several integrated indices. The results showed the presence of the climate change signal: increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation in the study region. As well as the probable costs of climate change for agriculture and the future trend, through probable scenarios, they point out that an exacerbation of the effects of climate, given the scarcity of water, situation that requires measures of mitigation policies and adaptation to climate change for the villages of the region.