The effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 infections for lower and middle-income countries: A debiased LASSO approach

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of COVID-19 infection in the first 100 days of government actions. Using a debiased LASSO estimator, we explore how different measures of government nonpharmaceutical interventions affect new infections of COVID-19 for 37 lower and middle-income countries (LMCs). We find that closing schools, stay-at-home restrictions, and contact tracing reduce the growth of new infections, as do economic support to households and the number of health care workers. Notably, we find no significant effects of business closures. Finally, infections become higher in countries with greater income inequality, higher tourist inflows, poorly educated adults, and weak governance quality. We conclude that several policy interventions reduce infection rates for poorer countries. Further, economic and institutional factors are important; thereby justifying the use, and ultimately success, of economic support to households during the initial infection period.