Supervised machine learning predictive analytics for triple-negative breast cancer death outcomes

Abstract

Objective: To use machine learning algorithms to predict the death outcomes of patients with triple-negative breast cancer, 5 years after discharge. Methods: 1570 stage I-III breast cancer patients receiving treatment from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital were analyzed. Machine learning was used to predict the death outcomes of patients with triple-negative breast cancer, 5 years after discharge. Results: The results showed that platelets, LMR (lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio), age, PLR (the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio) and white blood cell counts accounted for a significant weight in the 5-year prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer patients. The results of model prediction indicated that rankings for accuracy among the training group (from high to low) were forest, gbm, and DecisionTree (0.770335, 0.760766, 0.751994, 0.737640 and 0.734450, respectively). For AUC value (high to low), they were forest, Logistic and DecisionTree (0.896673, 0.895408, 0.776836, 0.722799 and 0.702804, respectively). The highest MSE value for DecisionTree was 0.2656, and the lowest MSE value for forest was 0.2297. In the test group, accuracy rankings (from high to low) were DecisionTree, and GradientBoosting (0.748408, 0.738854, 0.738854, 0.732484 and gbm, respectively). For AUC value (high to low), the rankings were GradientBoosting, gbm, and DecisionTree (0.731595, 0.715438, 0.712767, 0.708348 and 0.691960, respectively). The maximum MSE value for gbm was 0.2707, and the minimum MSE value for DecisionTree was 0.2516. Conclusion: The machine learning algorithm can predict the death outcomes of patients with triple-negative breast cancer 5 years after discharge. This can be used to estimate individual outcomes for patients with triple-negative breast cancer.