HYDROCARBONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON PERUVIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, APPLYING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Abstract

Hydrocarbons constitute a great opportunity for the industrial, energetic and social development of Peru. This research dealswith the design of a dynamic modelforeconomic growth, based on oil and gas, with the system dynamics methodology. The design of the model is due to an exhaustive review of international models that have been analyzed and adapted to the Peruvian reality. The results obtained from the simulation of the proposed modelshowa trend ofimprovement in the growth of the Peruvian economy-GDP for the years of the period 2015-2030 asa consequence of a successfuldecision to implementthe Camisea project. Gashashad very significant contributions, not only economic and financial, but also environmental and energetic, modifying the national energy matrix. Having a low-cost electricity supply, LPG to replace traditionalfossilfuels and ithas been possible to improve the air in the country's capital. Benefits that should be expanded and extended to the largestnumberofcities in the country. Given the richness of the gas deposits in LPG and condensates, the increase in production has resulted in a substantial improvement in the country's trade balance. The increase in the price of oil and its derivatives since 2007 has allowed the gas project to achieve a favorable economic result. Gas prices, both in the domestic market and for export, have been sufficient for the investments committed to the project to reach a significant return in a few years, which is reflected not only in the income of the Camisea consortium but also in the income received by the Central Government, and by the transfers via Canon received by the regional and district governments and the universities of the department of Cusco; and perhaps more important in the lower energy costs that benefited all Peruvians in general.