Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Abstract

The ongoing global warming is projected to persist throughout the entire century if effective mitigation measures are not put in place. The warming is associated with occurrence of extreme climate events that are prone over Africa. This study uses model data from 24 CMIP6 modeling centers to investigate future changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs). The amplified impact in extreme climate events by additional is computed relative to GWL1.5 °C. The models generally simulate observed climate extremes well, with the ensemble mean minimizing data uncertainties. The entire continent is projected to get warmer with the Sahara, Kalahari and parts of the Mediterranean depicting relatively higher temperatures. Both Rx1day and Rx5day are projected to increase over the continent except for the northern and southern regions of the continent. Rx5day is projected to increase by 4–10% for GWL1.5 and GWL3.0 °C. In comparison, an additional 0.5 °C warming between GWL2.0 °C and GWL1.5 °C will lead to an increase of about 43% impact for the climate extremes. An additional GWL1.5 °C (GWL3.0 °C) could result in about 68% increment in climate extremes. The amplified impact of global warming will result in devastating socioeconomic impacts over Africa. This stresses the need of formulating and implementing more ambitious climate change mitigation measures in effort to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.