A process-based method for predicting lateral erosion rates

Abstract

An accurate means of predicting erosion rates is essential to improve the predictive capability of breach models. During breach growth, erosion rates are often determined with empirical equations. The predictive capability of empirical equations is governed by the range for which they have been validated and the accuracy with which empirical coefficients can be established. Most empirical equations thereby do not account for the impact of material texture, moisture content, and compaction energy on the erosion rates. The method presented in this paper acknowledges the impact of these parameters by accounting for the process of dilation during erosion. The paper shows how, given high surface shear stresses, the erosion rate can be quantified by applying the principles of soil mechanics. Key is thereby to identify that stress balance situation for which the dilatency induced inflow gives a maximum averaged shear resistance. The effectiveness of the model in predicting erosion rates is indicated by means of three validation test cases. A sensitivity analysis of the method is also provided to show that the predictions lie within the range of inaccuracy of the input parameters.