Toward a renewable future: Attaining 100% renewable electricity generation through sustainable transition

Abstract

Despite efforts made over the past two decades, Pakistan continues to face electricity crises. The heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which make up 60% of the country’s energy mix, has raised concerns about energy security and environmental degradation due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developing effective electricity generation scenarios has been challenging for policymakers and researchers, despite the steady increase in electricity demand. The LEAP software was used in this study to forecast the country’s power demand, and four supply-side scenarios were constructed and examined for the years 2018 through 2040. These scenarios include a baseline scenario, a renewable energy scenario, a more renewable energy scenario, and a near-zero emission scenario, focusing on electricity generation and carbon emissions. The study’s findings, projecting into 2040, indicate that the renewable energy scenarios are environmentally sustainable, with lower GHG emissions compared to the baseline scenario. According to the findings of this study, it is projected that around 615 TWh (terawatt-hours) of renewable energy and nuclear energy will be necessary by the year 2040. The anticipated contributions include 393 TWh from hydroelectric energy, 57 TWh from wind energy, 41 TWh from solar energy, and 62 TWh from other renewable sources. The surge in renewable energy is forecasted to bring near-zero CO2 emissions by 2040, a pivotal step toward a sustainable energy future. A projected energy generation of 615 TWh is expected, which adequately meets the country’s energy demand. Transition to renewable energy is critical for addressing Pakistan’s increasing electricity demands, emphasizing both energy security and environmental sustainability.