Application of a Regionalization Method for Estimating Flash Floods: Cuautepec Basin, Mexico

Abstract

A rainfall regionalization method based on variation coefficient was applied with a variant in the construction of flash flood hyetographs with several return periods using the flash flood shape of the historical event that occurred in September 2021 in the Tlalnepantla River basin, Mexico, that caused severe damage to population and its infrastructure in a few hours. The historical flash flood was simulated with a semi-distributed model in the free software HEC-HMS in order to obtain the outflow hydrograph, and the flood plains were obtained with Iber and Hec-Ras 2d software that simulate free surface flow with a two-dimensional analysis. With photographs of the site, it was possible to locate traces of water that were contrasted with they calculated depths; they were concordant. Synthetic design storms were then simulated to estimate their potential consequences on the site.