Construction and evaluation of acquired weakness nomogram model in patients with mechanical ventilation in intensive care unit

Abstract

Objective: The incidence of intensive care unit acquired weakness (ICU-AW) has shown an increasing trend with still a lack of effective treatment options. The early assessment of the risk of developing ICU-AW can provide patients with targeted interventions. This study aimed to determine the independent risk factors of ICU-AW in patients receiving mechanical ventilation (MV) and develop a nomogram and verify its predictive efficacy. Methods: This observational study included patients receiving MV therapy in the ICU of our hospital between January 2020 and January 2023. They were divided into the ICU-AW and non-ICU-AW groups. The training cohort (n = 264) and the validation cohort (n = 143) were constructed. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select the risk factors, and a nomogram model was established. Calibration, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curves were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. Results: The MV duration (OR = 1.24, 95%CI[1.11, 1.38]), APACHE II score (OR = 1.34, 95%CI[1.20, 1.50]), SOFA score (OR = 1.36, 95%CI[1.21, 1.53]), age (OR = 1.05, 95%CI[1.00, 1.10]), nerve blockers (OR = 3.26, 95%CI[1.34, 7.92]), and diabetes mellitus (OR = 3.12, 95%CI[1.10, 8.87]) were independent risk factors for ICU-AW. The nomogram had good predictive efficacy for both the training (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.950, 95%CI [0.93, 0.97]) and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.823, 95%CI [0.75, 0.89]). Conclusion: The MV duration, APACHE II, SOFA, age, use of nerve blockers, and diabetes mellitus are independent risk factors for ICU-AW. The nomogram model based on them had good predictive efficacy and may be clinically useful.