Brief Communication: Understanding disasters and early-warning systems

Abstract

This paper discusses some methodological questions on understanding disasters. Destructive earthquakes continue to claim thousands of lives. Tsunamis may be caused by recoil of the upper plate. Darwin's twin-epicenter hypothesis is applied to a theory of tsunamis. The ergodicity hypothesis may help to estimate the return periods of extremely rare events. A social science outline on the causation of the Tôhoku nuclear disaster is provided.