Temporal analysis of the distribution of Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins (1905) in Mexico (2009-2018)

Abstract

Bark beetles are one of the main agents of forest degradation in Mexico. Within this group, Dendroctonus mexicanus is considered the most aggressive because it affects several pine species every year. This study aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of this species based on databases from official forest notifications by the Ministry of Natural Resources (Semarnat) in Mexico from 2009 to 2018. The databases were reviewed, analyzed and debugged. The ecological zone (North, Center, and South) on the affected area variable was correlated by using a fixed effects model. During the interval of the years under study, the bark beetle was distributed in 25 Mexican states, mainly in the Western Sierra Madre, the Eastern Sierra Madre and the Transversal Neovolcanic Axis. The years with the highest number of records were from 2012 to 2014, when the beetle was present mainly in mixed pine-oak and oak-pine forests. Nuevo León, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas and Michoacán are the states with had the largest surface areas affected by the beetle. Michoacán, Oaxaca, Durango, the State of Mexico, Nuevo León and Chihuahua had the largest volume of timber affected by the pest. The overall test value of F2,14 (fixed effects) was 17.99, and the p-value was 0.0001. There are highly significant differences among the three zones analyzed, in regard to the response variable.