Environmental risk assessment for the aegean sea

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic model predicting the risk of a possible ship accident occurrence in the Aegean Sea. The proposed model combines the results of the accident probability (P) with the severity of its consequences (S). The P factor is calculated using the Bayesian Network methodology. Static and dynamic information is taken into consideration. The S factor is estimated through a mathematical formula. Under the “consequences”, the cost resulting from an oil spill is considered. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this method a sample use cases has been conducted. The whole case study has been run within the framework of the AMINESS project.