Self-rated health and a healthy lifestyle are the most important predictors of survival in elderly women

Abstract

Objective: To test the hypothesis that morbidity and health related behavioural factors are stronger than social factors as predictors of death among older women. Methods: We used data from 12,422 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 70-75 in 1996. Proportional hazards models of survival up to 31 October 2005 were fitted separately for the whole cohort and those women who were initially in 'good health'. Results: Among the whole cohort, 18.7% died during the follow_up period. The strongest predictor of death was 'poor' or 'fair' self-rated health (with 52.3% and 28.0%, respectively, of women in these categories dying). Among the women in 'good health' at baseline 11.5% died, with current cigarette smoking (hazard ratio HR = 2.19, 95% confidence interval (1.71, 2.81), physical inactivity (HR = 1.45 (1.17, 1.81)), and age (HR = 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) per year) as statistically significant predictors of death. Discussion: Among older women, current health and health related behaviours are stronger predictors than social factors of relatively early mortality. Adopting a healthier lifestyle, by doing more exercise and not smoking, is beneficial even in old age. © The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.