Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and the need for intensive care in hospitalized non-critical COVID-19 patients: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

One of the most helpful strategies to deal with ongoing coronavirus pandemics is to use some prudence when treating patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to evaluate the clinical, demographic, and laboratory parameters that might have predictive value for in-hospital mortality and the need for intensive care and build a model based on them. This study was a prospective, observational, single-center study including non-critical patients admitted to COVID-19 wards. Besides classical clinic-demographic features, basic laboratory parameters obtained on admission were tested, and then new models for each outcome were developed built on the most significant variables. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were performed by calculating each model’s probability. A total of 368 non-critical hospitalized patients were recruited, the need for ICU care was observed in 70 patients (19%). The total number of patients who died in either ICU or wards was 39 (10.6%). The first two models (based on clinical features and demographics) were developed to predict ICU and death, respectively; older age, male sex, active cancer, and low baseline saturation were noted to be independent predictors. The area under the curve values of the first two models were noted 0.878 and 0.882 (p