ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL RICE AVAILABILITY TOWARDS SELF-SUPPORT WITH A DYNAMIC MODEL APPROACH

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to find out and project the effect of expansion of planting area or the effect of intensification and addition of production credit on increasing rice production so that it can be used as one of the recommendations in achieving and maintaining national rice self-sufficiency. The research was conducted using a qualitative descriptive method. The data used is secondary data, namely data on production and prices of Indonesian rice in 1993 – 2015. The data analysis method used is dynamic model analysis by producing price and production policies. The research was conducted with the help of IThink software. Based on the results of the processing and analysis of the existing data, it can be concluded that: (1) Variables that affect the yield of rice production and the achievement of self-sufficiency are extensification, intensification, and per capita consumption of rice per year; (2) Rice self-sufficiency can be achieved by Indonesia in 2024 or 2025 with a production target of 40 million tons if changes are made to these key factors; (3) The policy that needs to be done is to increase extensification and intensification by absorbing technology and adding inputs or capital through production credit and reducing rice consumption by 8% through the one day no rice program in one week.