Study on the Wildfires Occurring Risk Based on Fuzzy FTA

Abstract

The serious consequences of wildfire urges scholars to pay more attention to control the occurrence of wildfire. Wildfire occurring is considered to be the result of satisfying comprehensive conditions including sufficient forest fuel, high forest fire-danger weather ratings and ignition source in this paper. In order to further study the causes and potential risks of wildfires. An assessment algorithm used for wildfires occurring risk is proposed by combining trapezoidal fuzzy theory and FTA. Furthermore, Xiangxi was chosen as application example, and the result shows that the top five dangerous BEs are 'High average temperatures (X1)', 'illegal sacrifices (burning) (X23)', 'large underground humics (X7)', 'large weeds and dwarf shrubs (X11)', 'luxuriant tree branches (X14)' exist highly risk. Finally, based on the evaluation results, suggestions are provided for the above basic events with greater risks.