Cambio climático y modelado de distribución de especies de Stevia (Asteraceae) en el noroeste de la Argentina

Abstract

The high biodiversity and species richness, along with a great variety of ecosystems, turn northwestern Argentina into an adequate area for study the possible effects of climate change on the distribution of organisms. Asteraceae is a well-represented family of flowering plants in this area; especially, the genus Stevia, with 25 species which inhabit different environments. The goals of this study were: 1) to model habitat suitability for five species of Stevia distributed in northwestern Argentina, and 2) to project such suitability under a possible greenhouse gas emission scenario by 2050. Species S. alpina, S. breviaristata, S. minor, S. vaga and S. yaconensis were analyzed. Results showed that, when comparing maps based on current and future climatic conditions, all Stevia species would undergo changes in their fitness ranges. The trends observed in both future climate scenarios are similar, although they show more drastic consequences in the rcp8.5 model. Stevia alpina, S. breviaristata and S. minor reduce their area of aptitude, while S. vaga and S. yaconensis experience an increase of said area. Except for S. minor, the species showed a major tendency to migrate from East to West, a phenomenon known as altitude shift. Stevia minor would be the more affected species in a higher gas emission scenario since it will suffer a reduction greater than 80% for its suitability values greater than 0.65.