Dynamic Modeling of Prevention and Control of Brucellosis in China: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Brucellosis is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by bacteria of the genus Brucella. In recent years, the prevalence of brucellosis in animals and humans has been increasing in China despite the considerable efforts taken to date. Dynamic model serves as an influential and promising approach for offering guidance and recommendations for the prevention and control of the disease. At this pivotal moment, it is time to provide a comprehensive and timely examination of the existing achievements derived from the mathematical dynamical modeling studies, highlight the key development trends, delve into identifying the limitations of the studies, and offer valuable perspectives and insights for potential future research directions. Through a review of 49 articles (22 articles utilizing data while 27 articles did not use data), this study focuses on analyzing the differences in model structure, research data and areas, characterization of prevention and control measures, and main results. Meanwhile, quantitative results such as the reproduction number and critical parameter values are extracted. The study points out that the limitations of existing models are manifested in the lack of heterogeneity in the research and the absence of the results on the scale of herd/flock. The primary reason is the lack of relevant data, indicating the necessity to advance interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary, and transdisciplinary collaboration across multiple departments. Therefore, it is encouraged that the future models should be established from the holistic approach of One Health.