Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality

Abstract

This study utilizes China’s records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate a projected escalation in the heat stress index (HSI) throughout China from 2031 to 2100. The most substantial increments compared to the baseline (1995–2014) are observed under SSP5-8.5, indicating a rise of 7.96°C by the year 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is relatively modest at 1.54°C. Disparities in HSI growth are evident among different subregions, with South China encountering the most significant elevation, whereas Northwest China exhibits the lowest increment. Projected future temperatures align closely with HSI patterns, while relative humidity is anticipated to decrease across the majority of areas. The study’s projections indicate that China’s heat-related mortality is poised to surpass present levels over the forthcoming decades, spanning a range from 215% to 380% from 2031 to 2100. Notably, higher emission scenarios correspond to heightened heat-related mortality. Additionally, the investigation delves into the respective contributions of humidity and temperature to shifts in heat-related mortality. At present, humidity exerts a greater impact on fluctuations in heat-related mortality within China and its subregions. However, with the projected increase in emissions and global warming, temperature is expected to assume a dominant role in shaping these outcomes. In summary, this study underscores the anticipated escalation of heat stress and heat-related mortality across China in the future. It highlights the imperative of emission reduction as a means to mitigate these risks and underscores the variances in susceptibility to heat stress across different regions.