The global landscape of bladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2020 and projections to 2040

Abstract

Background Bladder cancer (BCa) is one of the most common urological malignancies worldwide. This study examines the global epidemiological profile of BCa incidence and mortality in 2020 and the projected burden to 2040. Methods The estimated number of BCa cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using the world standard. The predicted BCa incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections. Results Globally, approximately 573000 new BCa cases and 213000 deaths occurred in 2020, corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 5.6 and 1.9 per 100000, respectively. The incidence and mortality rates were approximately 4-fold higher in men (9.5 and 3.3 per 100000, respectively) than women (2.4 and 0.9, respectively). Across world regions, incidence rates varied at least 12-fold among men and 8-fold among women, with the highest ASIRs for both men and women detected in Southern Europe (26.5 and 5.8 per 100000, respectively) and Western Europe (21.5 and 5.8, respectively) and the lowest in Middle Africa (2.2) in men and South-Central Asia (0.7) in women. The highest ASMRs for both men and women were found in Northern Africa (9.2 and 1.8 per 100000, respectively). By 2040, the annual number of new BCa cases and deaths will increase to 991000 (72.8% increase from 2020) and 397000 (86.6% increase), respectively. Conclusions Geographical distributions of BCa incidence and mortality uncovered higher risk of BCa incidence in Southern and Western European populations and higher risk of mortality in Northern African populations. Considering the predicted 73% and 87% increase in annual BCa cases and deaths by 2040 globally, respectively, there is an urgent need to develop and accelerate BCa control initiatives for high-risk populations to tackle global BCa burden and narrow its geographical disparities.