Time to Death and Predictors Among Neonates with Esophageal Atresia in Ethiopia

Abstract

Background: Esophageal atresia is an upper gastrointestinal tract developmental abnormality in which the upper and lower esophagus do not connect. Esophageal atresia has a higher incidence of death in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 30% to 80%. In Ethiopia, infants with esophageal atresia had a higher mortality rate. The assessment of time to death and predictors of esophageal atresia can help to reduce newborn mortality. Objective: This study was aimed to investigate the time to death and predictors of neonates with esophageal atresia admitted to Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia. Methods: An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 225 neonates diagnosed with esophageal atresia. The median survival time, Kaplan–Meier failure estimation curve, and Log rank test were computed. Bivariable and multi-variable Cox regression hazards models were fitted to identify the predictors of time to death. Hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was calculated and p-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: In the study, the incidence density rate of neonates diagnosed with esophageal atresia was 5.5 (95% CI, 4.7–6.4) per 100-neonates day. The median time to death was 11 days (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.92–13.08). Birth weight <2500 g (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)=1.49, 95% CI, 1.02 −2.21), having sepsis (AHR=1.67,95% CI, 1.15–2.44), being malnourished (AHR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03 −2.58), esophageal atretic neonates without surgery (AHR = 3.72, 95% CI, 1.34–10.38), diagnosis time at >48 hours of admission (AHR = 1.48, 95% CI, 1.01–2.15) and being dehydrated (AHR = 2.38, 95% CI, 1.63–3.46) were significant predictors of time to death among esophageal atretic neonates. Conclusion: The findings in this study highlighted the necessity of early diagnosis, proper comorbidity treatment, and timely surgical intervention to reduce infant deaths due to esophageal atresia.