Palūkanų normų kaitos ir jos veiksnių tyrimas Lietuvoje 1994-2006 m.

Abstract

Interest is the amount paid by a borrower to a lender in exchange for the use of the lender's money for a certain period. Interest rate is the price of lending money. Investigation of interest rates dynamics and its factors can be carried out according to three main theories: unbiased expectations, liquidity preference, and market segmentation theory. Interest rates' factors are divided into three groups: economical, political, and social factors. Lithuanian banks' loan and time deposit interest rates analysis shows, that there were decreasing interest rates and net interest margin in the period of 1994-2006. The main reason, which influenced interest rates to fall, was decreasing price level. Crisis in Russia caused sharp increase in loan and time deposit interest rates in 1999. On the other hand, competition in the loan and time deposit markets became more severe and it led to a decrease in interest rates. Economic cycle in Lithuania and general interest rates level have the opposite relation, which was confirmed by correlation analysis. As a result of analysis the authors make the interest rates forecast. As history of last years shows - ECB will increase the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations within limits of 0.25-0.5 p. p. This would effect interest rates level in Lithuania from 0.4 to 0.7 p.p. in 2007. For the reason that inflation in fast growing country will reach 4.5 percent (forecast), real interest rate of deposits in most banks will be negative. (English) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Šio straipsnio tikslas - pamėginti ištirti viso pohiperinfliacinio laikotarpio palūkarnų normos dinamiką, atlikti jos periodizaciją, nustatyti buvusius dėsningumus, iąskirti pagrindinius veiksnius. Tai galėtų būti naudinga prognozuojant palūkarų normų pokyčius ateityje, ypač kartojantis ekonomikos ciklui. Palūkanų normos vaidina svarbų vaidmenį skatinant verslo aktyvumą. Skolinimo sandoriuose nustatomos palūkanų normos. Bankai moka palūkanas už indėlius ir gauna palūkanas už suteiktas paskolas. Palūkanų normų kaitos ir jos veiksnių analizė leidžia geriau pažinti palūkanų normos susiformavimo mechanizmą ir ją prognozuoti. Straipsnyje aptariami palūkanų normų analizės teoriniai pagrindai, analizuojama palūkanų normų kaita Lietuvoje 1994-2006 m. laikotarpiu, išskiriami penki laikotarpiai ir jiems būdingi palūkanų nonnos dinamikos dėsningumai, nustatomi ir kiekybiškai įvertinami pagrindiniai veiksniai, darę įtaką palūkanų normų kaitai. Pamėginta pateikti palūkanų normų prognozę artimiausiam Iaikotarpiui. (Lithuanian) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Business: Theory & Practice is the property of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)