Game-Theoretic Model of the Species and Varietal Composition of Fruit Plantations

Abstract

The horticultural industry is significantly influenced by climatic factors that cannot be accurately predicted. The aim of this study is to substantiate the species and varietal compositionof plantations that provide maximum profit, taking into account the attractiveness of the variety andthe influence of weather conditions on the results of management. Using the methods of gametheory, analysis, and comparison, a game-theoretic model of the species and varietal composition offruit plantations has been developed. The first matrix of the game contains “pure” strategies thatconsider only the placement of stone fruits of different ripening periods and “pure” strategies ofnature that characterize the possible weather conditions affecting stone fruits. The second matrixof the game consists of “pure” strategies that consider the setting of only pome crops of differentripening periods and “clean” strategies that characterize possible weather conditions affecting thesowing of pome crops. On the basis of the processed material and the calculated indicators, thecomposition of groups of varieties of pome and stone fruit crops by ripeness for the enterprise isproposed. The results obtained show that the use of a theoretical and game model is effective forthe development and selection of the best production solutions under conditions of uncertaintywhen the production process is highly dependent on random factors