The use of what-if analysis to improve the management of crisis situations

Abstract

The EU FP7 Network of Excellence CIPRNet has developed CIPRTrainer, an application that provides a new capability for training crisis management (CM) staff. It enables exploring different courses of action and comparing their consequences (what-if analysis) in complex simulated crisis and emergency scenarios. The simulation employs threat, impact, and damage models and is based on federated modelling, simulation and analysis of Critical Infrastructures. In this chapter, we present an overview of the technical realisation of CIPRTrainer, embed the approach into the state of the art, and elaborate on CIPRTrainer’s user interface and the training experience. The chapter also explains how the models for the complex crisis scenarios have been created, what level of detail could be realised, and how cases of missing data could be handled. As an example, we use a cross-border scenario about a cargo train derailment disaster. In the final sections, the reader learns how to set up, start and perform a training session with CIPRTrainer, how to use ‘what if’ analysis, and how to read the results of consequence analysis.