ASSESSMENT OF CHIKUNGUNYA FEVER (CHIKF) RISK AREAS IN THE SOUTH OF THAILAND BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA

Abstract

The south of Thailand is a popular touristic destination and, at the same time, a very high-risk area for a Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) outbreak due to the tropical environment. Therefore, it is essential to monitor and potentially prevent the CHIKF disease outbreak in this area. This research aims to apply synergistically the Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques to evaluate CHIKF risk spatially in the south of Thailand. Five criteria related to the risk of CHIKF disease were selected following the most influential factors: CHIKF patient density data, the number of population density, the household number data, land use/land cover and rainfall data. The importance weight of each criterion was calculated; the consistency ratio (CR) that gives less than 0.1 was considered acceptable. The higher the essential weight of a given factor, the more influence it will have on the final decision. CHIKF risk area in 14 provinces in the south of Thailand was reclassified into five categories (very high, high, moderate, low and very low). The CHIKF risk area map was found to be in agreement with the CHIKF patient number data recorded in the last 10 years. The results can support the government’s disease control departments and the Provincial Public Health Office to devise strategies and plans for controlling potential outbreaks efficiently.