Development and Validation of a Risk Score Screening Tool to Identify People at Risk for Hypertension in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to develop a screening tool based on a risk scoring approach that could identify individuals at high risk for hypertension in Shanghai, China. Methods: A total of 3147 respondents from the 2013 Shanghai Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance were randomly divided into the derivation group and validation group. The coefficients obtained from multivariable logistic regression were used to assign a score to each variable category. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to find the optimal cut-off point and to evaluate the screening performance. Results: Age, family history of hypertension, having diabetes, having dyslipidemia, body mass index, and having abdominal obesity contributed to the risk score. The area under the ROC curve was 0.817 (95% CI: 0.797–0.836). The optimal cut-off value of 20 had a sensitivity of 83.4%, and a specificity of 64.3%, demonstrating good performance. Conclusion: We developed a simple and valid screening tool to identify individuals at risk for hypertension. Early detection could be beneficial for high-risk groups to better manage their conditions and delay the progression of hypertension and related complications.