Changements climatiques et biodiversité: Comment construire des stratégies sans regrets ?

Abstract

The authors begin by presenting the issues that arise from the effects of climate change on biodiversity. They emphasise on the one hand that this change cannot be predicted solely on the basis of mean scenarios on the scale of a region and, on the other, that it must be analysed through a systemic approach whereby climate changes interact with current factors that erode biodiversity. Additionally, changes in the behaviours of our societies towards these modifications is also a factor that might affect biodiversity, bringing a third level of complexity that needs to be taken into account. As a result, there is a high degree of uncertainty attached to changes in biodiversity despite which many strategies rely on the fact that biodiversity could contribute, as it does today, to mitigating their magnitude or limit their effects. In the second part, the authors stress that this situation of uncertainty clearly justifies the application of the precautionary principle, and hence encourages action in spite of those uncertainties. They propose five principles for action for implementation of “no regrets” strategies — ones that are valid for a broad range of change scenarios: reinforce policies aimed at reducing current pressure on biodiversity, encourage on site adaptation of species and ecosystems, ensure that man-made developments are multifunctional, establish a model of sustainable socioeconomic development of ecological capital and involve citizens in all these actions so as to co-develop natural and social capital goods.