A GM (1, 1) Markov chain-based aeroengine performance degradation forecast approach using exhaust gas temperature

Abstract

Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1) Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1) model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this approach, firstly, the GM (1, 1) model is used to forecast the trend by using limited data samples. Then, Markov chain model is integrated into GM (1, 1) model in order to enhance the forecast performance, which can solve the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting accuracy and achieving an accurate estimate of the nonlinear forecast. As an example, the historical monitoring data of exhaust gas temperature from CFM56 aeroengine of China Southern is used to verify the forecast performance of the GM (1, 1) Markov chain model. The results show that the GM (1, 1) Markov chain model is able to forecast exhaust gas temperature accurately, which can effectively reflect the random fluctuation characteristics of exhaust gas temperature changes over time. © 2014 Ning-bo Zhao et al.