Analysis of rainfall erosivity trends 1980–2018 in a complex terrain region (Abruzzo, central italy) from rain gauges and gridded datasets

Abstract

The erosive capacity of precipitation depends on its intensity, volume, and duration. The rainfall erosivity factor (R) of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) requires high frequency (subhourly) data. When these are not available, R can be estimated from simplified indices such as the Modified Fournier Index (MFI), the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), and the Seasonality Index (SI), which are computed from monthly precipitation. We calculated these indices for 34 stations in the complex terrain Abruzzo region (central Italy) during 1980–2018, based on both gauge (point) and grid datasets. Using 30-min rainfall data of 14 stations, we verified that MFI and PCI are reliable predictors of R (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 163.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 year−1 ). For MFI, grid data do not capture the peaks in high-altitude stations and the low values in some inland areas, detected by the point dataset. Grid data show significant MFI positive trends in 74% of the stations, while the point data display significant positive trends in only 26% of stations and significant negative trends in four stations in the inland areas. The grid data complex orography requires preliminary validation work.