Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling of Occult Choledocholithiasis in Patients with Cholecystolithiasis

Abstract

Background: Occult choledocholithiasis, if not diagnosed and treated in a timely manner, can have severe consequences. The purpose of this study is to construct a predictive model to assist in the diagnosis. Methods: A total of 988 case datasets were included. Data were analyzed using chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression. Ultimately, a predictive model for gallstones combined with occult choledocholithiasis was constructed. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), direct bilirubin (DBIL), location of gallstones, and ultrasonographic indication of common bile duct dilation are independent risk factors for gallstones combined with occult choledocholithiasis. A predictive model was constructed based on these factors: logit(P) = −5.109 + 2.007x1 + 1.175x2 + 3.479x3 + 1.412x4 + 2.199x5 + 2.473x6 (where x1–x6 represent age, location of gallstones, ultrasonographic indication of common bile duct dilation, ALT, GGT, DBIL, respectively). The model demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.839, specificity of 0.891, accuracy of 0.885, 95% CI of 0.913–0.967, and an AUC of 0.940. Conclusion: Age, ALT, GGT, DBIL, gallstone location, and sonographic common bile duct dilation constitute independent risk factors for gallstones with occult choledocholithiasis. The prediction model based on these indicators provides a valuable tool for the diagnosis of occult choledocholithiasis.