Analysis of Technology Evolution Trends for Predicting Future Technologies

Abstract

Establishing a method for the prediction of future technology is crucial in a modern society in which technology develops rapidly and the lifetime of products is very short. However, many future forecasting methods, such as the Delphi technique, scenario planning, and futures wheel, have the potential to produce false results because they rely on individual or collective intelligence in subjective ways[1]. Therefore, the development of an objective method is necessary. G. Altshuller, the founder of the theory of inventive problem solving, showed that systems develop according to objective laws, and these laws can be used for solving technical problems. The technology evolution laws he discovered not only could be used to solve technical problems but also opened up new ways to predict future technologies. This paper shows 11 trends of technical system evolution existing in the history of technology development and how these trends can be used to predict future technologies. This new forecasting method based on evolutionary patterns is intended to help in predicting future technologies objectively, as opposed to the subjective views of analysts.