Food and environmental degradation as causative agents of honey bee colonies decline: Mathematical model approach

Abstract

In this research, a new compartment model of honey bee population is developed to study the effects of gradual change of food availability as a result of environmental degradation on bee population growth and development. The model is proved to be mathematical well posed and a non-trivial equilibrium point is shown to exist and asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The model predicts a critical threshold environmental degradation rate above which the population size of bees decline and subsequently collapsed. Low environmental degradation and high food availability leads to stable bee population while the reverse leads to honey bee population collapse. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive parameters of the model that can lead to colony collapse disorder. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the results.