Urbanisation and crime: A case study of Pakistan

Abstract

From the economic point of view, urbanisation is good as it facilitates achievement of economies of scale and thus promotes growth of industries and development in the economy. However, from the social point of view, urbanisation encourages crime as the rate of crime is higher in large cities and in urbanised areas. Several explanations of the phenomenon have been provided in the literature but none of these provide a sound analysis of the linkage between urbanisation and crime. The objective of this paper is to explore this linkage. We use the Johansen Cointegration method, and the period of analysis is 1964-2008. Besides urbanisation, four other socio-economic determinants, which may influence crime, are also analysed. These are unemployment, inflation, income inequality, and education. The results show a long-run positive and unique relationship between urbanisation and crime in Pakistan. Since migration to urban areas is mostly caused by a search for jobs, the policy-makers should plan for more industrial centres in the rural areas. These industrial centres will provide employment and, consequently, urbanisation and crime would be better controlled. © The Pakistan Development Review.