Affective polarization and political violence

Abstract

This chapter investigates the relationship between affective polarization and political violence, drawing on existing work and analyzing survey data from nine democracies. It introduces a simple analytical framework for understanding variation in support for political violence, consisting of four dimensions: severity, agency, actor relations, and pretext. Substantial cross-national differences in support for violence of intermediate severity are documented, with the US exhibiting the highest levels. Speaking to theoretical expectations, linear and non-linear models are then employed to examine whether affective polarization predicts support for political violence. Although an initial negative linear relationship is observed, non-linear models reveal a reverse J-shaped pattern, suggesting that affective polarization shapes attitudes towards political violence at higher levels of polarization. Finally, the chapter argues for expanding beyond the current individual-level focus and introduces the concept of partisan violence opportunity structures (PVOS), emphasizing how perceptions of partisan willingness to engage in violence can create environments conducive to violent action by a small subset of the population. Preliminary analyses suggest the US and Brazil have the most conducive PVOS, with Sweden at the opposite end.