Transition pathways to electrified chemical production within sector-coupled national energy systems

Abstract

The chemical industry's transition to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is particularly challenging due to the carbon inherently contained in chemical products, eventually released to the environment. Fossil feedstock-based production can be replaced by electrified chemical production, combining carbon capture and utilization (CCU) with electrolysis-based hydrogen. However, electrified chemical production requires vast amounts of clean electricity, leading to competition in our sector-coupled energy systems. In this work, we investigate the pathway of the chemical industry towards electrified production within the context of a sector-coupled national energy system's transition to net-zero emissions. Our results show that the sectors for electricity, low-temperature heat, and mobility transition before the chemical industry due to the required build-up of renewables, and to the higher emissions abatement of heat pumps and battery electric vehicles. The chemical industry transitions last together with high-temperature heat, beginning with methanol, then ammonia, the olefins, and finally the aromatics. To achieve the net-zero target, the energy system relies on clean energy imports to cover 41% of its electricity needs, largely driven by the high energy requirements of a fully electrified chemical industry. Nonetheless, a partially electrified industry combined with dispatchable production alternatives provides flexibility to the energy system by enabling electrified production when renewable electricity is available. Hence, a partially electrified, diversified chemical industry can support the integration of intermittent renewables, serving as a valuable component in net-zero energy systems.