Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5 °C Target of the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Now that many countries have set goals for reaching net zero emissions by the middle of the century, it is important to clarify the role of each country in achieving the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we evaluated China’s role by calculating the global temperature impacts caused by China’s emission pathways available in global emissions scenarios toward the 1.5 °C target. Our results show that China’s contribution to global warming in 2050 (since 2005) is 0.17 °C on average, with a range of 0.1 °C to 0.22 °C. The peak contributions of China vary from 0.1 °C to 0.23 °C, with the years reached distributing between 2036 and 2065. The large difference in peak temperatures arises from the differences in emission pathways of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We further analyzed the effect of the different mix of CO2 and CH4 mitigation trajectories in China’s pathways on the global mean temperature. We found that China’s near-term CH4 mitigation reduces the peak temperature in the middle of the century, whereas it plays a less important role in determining the end-of-the-century temperature. Early CH4 mitigation action in China is an effective way to shave the peak temperature, further contributing to reducing the temperature overshoot along the way toward the 1.5 °C target. This underscores the necessity for early CO2 mitigation to ultimately achieve the long-term temperature goal.