Exploring socio-demographic and urban form indices in demand forecasting models to reflect spatial variations: Case study of childcare centres in hobart, Australia

Abstract

This study investigated whether indices for socioeconomic, demographic and urban form characteristics can reflect the overall effect of each category in a demand forecasting model. Regression equations were developed for trip generation of the land use of long day care centres (LDCC) in the metropolitan region of Hobart, Australia, to estimate the morning peak hourly private car trip generation of the centres. The independent variables for the model were functions of socioeconomic, demographic and urban form related indices, while the dependent variable was private car trip generation per number of staff or children. Findings show that using indices for socioeconomic, demographic and urban form characteristics enhances overall model performance, while the models based on the commonly used method for estimating trip generation present acceptable results in just some specific sites. The use of socioeconomic, demographic and urban form indices can reflect differences in these characteristics across suburbs when estimating trip generation.