Contextualizing Marine Heatwaves in the Southern California Bight Under Anthropogenic Climate Change

Abstract

In early August 2018, record-high sea surface temperatures were recorded in the 102 year old Scripps Institution of Oceanography daily temperature time series (SIOT) at La Jolla, CA, USA. The previous record of 25.8 °C, set in July 1931, was broken four times over 9 days, peaking at 26.4 °C on 9 August 2018. Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature data suggest that the marine heatwave (MHW) manifested in the northern half of the Baja California Peninsula, tapering off into the Southern California Bight. Here we use the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature data to categorize this MHW as severe with relatively high maximum intensity (3.9 °C) and long duration (44 days) when compared to other events in the time series. Glider profiles show that the thermal anomaly was largest near the surface and extended to at least 100 m depth. By detrending the SIOT to remove the long-term anthropogenic climate signal and comparing the resulting data set to the unadjusted, we contextualize this MHW with respect to the entire time series and demonstrate that the long-term trend played a crucial role in amplifying the intensity and duration of the MHW. In this case, the anthropogenic warming signal in the SIOT accounts for an additional 19 MHW days (from 24 to 43) and an increase in cumulative intensity of 56.8 °C (from 83.1 to 139.9).