Forecast of typhoon motion in the vicinity of Taiwan during 1989-90 using a dynamical model

Abstract

The limited-area primitive equation model has nine σ levels and a grid size of 70 km. The model domain of 8500 km × 6000 km is centered near Taiwan, and covers the western part of the Pacific Ocean and southeast China. A model-balanced vortex is bogussed into the analysis to initialize the forecast. During the operational checkout period, 12 typhoons were forecasted, with an average 48-h track error of 415 km (62 forecast cases). For the 1990 season, there were 11 typhoons, with an average 48-h error of 392 km (63 forecast cases). Examination of the synoptic patterns indicates that the track forecast depends closely on the forecast of the subtropical high circulation. -from Authors