International crises and authoritarian resilience: lessons from Hungary and Turkey

Abstract

This article focuses on how international geopolitical crises can boost regime security in competitive authoritarian regimes through a study of the ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the Turkish and Hungarian regimes in the run up to both countries’ pivotal elections that took place after the invasion. It argues that while domestic factors are decisive in determining regime outcomes, regional international crises can help competitive authoritarian regimes strengthen their domestic survival and boost regime security through two main mechanisms, namely by enhancing domestic legitimacy and promoting autocratic sponsorship. The article shows that the war has boosted regime security through enhancing both performance and personalistic leadership-based legitimacy claims of Erdoğan and Orban, as well as by providing novel opportunities for autocracy support by Russia in both of the countries concerned.