Climate Risks to IoT Devices in Kazakhstan: Projections and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This study investigates the vulnerability of Internet of Things (IoT) devices to climate change in Kazakhstan, where extreme seasonal variability and rising climate risks threaten device reliability. Using high-resolution climate projection data from ERA5 and CMIP6 models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios), combined with qualitative interviews with stakeholders in agriculture, energy, transport, and urban infrastructure, we develop risk assessment models for IoT systems. The analysis quantifies device failure probabilities through temperature and humidity thresholds and extends risk curves to include additional climatic stressors such as solar radiation, wind, and snowfall. Results reveal that IoT devices face heightened risks in northern regions during extreme cold events (below −40 °C) and in southern regions during prolonged heatwaves (above +40 °C). Interviews confirm that maintenance, power supply reliability, and device calibration remain major concerns under harsh climate conditions. The findings provide evidence-based recommendations for adaptation strategies, including resilient hardware design, predictive maintenance protocols, and climate-informed deployment planning. This research contributes to the emerging field of climate-resilient IoT, offering both methodological advances and practical insights for policymakers and infrastructure planners in Central Asia.