Long term demand forecasting in Jakarta distribution grid system using fuzzy logic and artificial neural network method

Abstract

In order to attain equilibrium between energy supply and demand, reliance on conventional methods for precise long-term electricity demand forecasting is no longer viable. The utilization of artificial intelligence, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN) models, emerges as a prospective solution in the current dynamic scenario. This research explores long-term electricity demand forecasting within the Jakarta distribution grid system, employing various fuzzy logic and ANN approaches including Sugeno, Mamdani, Bayesian Regularization, and the Levenberg algorithm. The analysis incorporates time series data spanning 2016 to 2019, encompassing electricity load demand, economic factors, and demographic variables, processed using MATLAB. The outcomes of the four forecasting methods reveal an average error range of 2 to 3%. The findings indicate that employing fuzzy logic and ANN methods for long-term electricity demand forecasting can yield a forecast error of less than 3%. The study recommends future research enhancements through the inclusion of additional time series data and a more refined system.