Prospects of the Russian Coal Industry in the Conditions of Transition to a New Energy Pattern

Abstract

The article analyzes the prospects for changes in the volume of exports of Russian coal due to the reduction of its consumption for energy production by the importing countries. The importance of Russian power generating coal for the energy supply to the world as a whole and to individual importing regions in particular is shown. It is justified that a radical and abrupt refusal to use coal as an energy source in the next few years would hardly be possible because the per capita and the total electric energy consumption has been growing all over the world. To a large extent, this is due to the increase in the number of data centers around the world, which centers do not yet have enough “green” sources of energy to ensure the uninterrupted operation thereof. Therefore, coal exports from Russia to the European countries, China and DPRK will continue to grow in the years to come; this is confirmed by the forecast models built by the authors, which models consider changes in the coal and electricity consumption by major importers. By the time the conditions are ensured for the majority of countries in the world to abandon coal as a source of electricity in order to stop air pollution, Russia will need to find opportunities for its alternative use, an example of which would be the creation and development of production of competitive products of the coal chemical industry.