Impacts of el niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) on rice production in Thailand during 1961-2016

Abstract

The impacts of ENSO and its associated climate variability on Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield during 1961-2016 were examined. Analysis showed that year-to-year weather-related variations in Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield which accounted for about one third of total interannual variance tended to vary in response to the phase reversals of ENSO events, with large decreases occurred during El Niño events. Rice production, area harvested and yield also exhibited lower (higher) than normal during the years when Thailand experienced deficit (excess) rainfall and lower (greater) number of rainy days. These results in combination with the previous studies suggest that ENSO exerts its influence on rice production and yield in Thailand via inducing anomalies in rainfall and temperature. Another noteworthy finding was the asymmetrical ENSO-Thailand’s rice production relationship. Significant decline was observed only during El Niño events, highlighting a much greater influence of El Niño events on Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield than La Niña events. This observation provides additional evidence extending the previously reported asymmetry in the ENSO-rainfall relationship in Thailand to rice production and yield as well. Hence, the asymmetrical ENSO-rice relationship should be taken into account when developing linearly predictive model.