Informal adaptations in restructuring supply chains: Worker responses to geopolitical decoupling

Abstract

This article examines how geopolitical tensions reshape informal economic activities through supply chain restructuring. Drawing on 60 interviews with workers and systematic analysis of 47 policy documents across Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria, the research develops the concept of “geopolitical informality,” informal economic adaptations triggered by interstate competition rather than domestic factors. Triangulating interview data with union estimates and corporate reports, the research indicates that approximately 38% to 52% of displaced workers transition to informal employment, creating a “formalization paradox” where states assert control over strategic sectors while tolerating informality for competitive flexibility. Document analysis exposes systematic “strategic silence” in policy frameworks that celebrate formal job creation while ignoring the informal foundations enabling supply chain restructuring. Workers demonstrate significant agency through cross-border networks, skill-sharing cooperatives, and hybrid formal–informal income strategies. The research challenges assumptions about formalization and development, revealing informality as a structural feature of contemporary geopolitical capitalism requiring new theoretical frameworks and policy approaches that protect worker welfare while navigating strategic competition.