Satellite monitoring of the wildfire in Siberia and fire emissions estimation

Abstract

Using the threshold-based method for classifying thermally active pixels on Terra and Aqua / MODIS images we identified categories of combustion intensity for different parts of fires considering main types of forest stands in Siberia. The threshold values and the corresponding fire categories were determined based on the statistical values of the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of the fire pixels. Using the long-term fire database (2002–2019, Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Federal Research Center KSC SB RAS), we obtained instrumental estimates of direct fire carbon emissions for the territory of Siberia. Direct emissions from fires varied from minima values of 20–40 Tg/year (2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010) to maxima values of 200 Tg/year during the 2012 and 2019 extreme fire seasons. Preliminary estimation on carbon emission for 2020 is 180 Tg C/year. Fires in the larch forests of the flat-mountainous taiga region (Central Siberia) made the greatest contribution (more than 65 %) to the total emissions. Estimates of the probable level of emissions are provided considering various IPCC climatic scenarios. Considering RCP2.6, RCP4.0 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios it is possible that the direct fire emissions will increase more than twice until the end of the XXI century. At the same time extreme climatic scenarios (RCP8.5) can result in a tenfold increase in emissions.