European HFC emissions evaluated with multiple atmospheric inverse models and UNFCCC national inventories

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are potent greenhouse gases widely used in refrigeration, air-conditioning, and heat pump systems. Accurate monitoring of HFC emissions is essential to evaluate compliance with climate regulations and inform mitigation strategies. This study presents trends of HFC emissions across north-western Europe between 2013 and 2024, derived from atmospheric inverse modelling combining atmospheric measurements at eleven monitoring stations with two transport models (NAME and FLEXPART) and three Bayesian inversion systems (InTEM, ELRIS, RHIME). Although global emissions continue to rise for most HFCs, in north-western Europe our results show an overall steady decline in total HFC emissions from 40 ± 3 Tg CO2-eq yr−1 in 2016 (prior to enhanced regulation) to 29 ± 2 Tg CO2-eq yr−1 in 2023, following EU F-gas Regulations. This reduction is driven primarily by decreasing emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-143a and HFC-125 despite increasing HFC-32 emissions due to its adoption as a lower-global-warming-potential alternative refrigerant. Comparisons with national inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) show generally good agreement over north-western Europe but reveal discrepancies for specific compounds and countries, particularly for HFC-134a and HFC-125 in France and Germany during the earlier years of the study period. The recent expansion of the European measurement network demonstrates potential to improve spatial coverage and resolution of inverse emission estimates, especially in southern and central Europe. This study highlights the value of multi-model inversions to provide robust emission estimates with realistic, hence actionable, uncertainty characterisation.