Future Energy Consumption and Economic Implications of Transport Policies: A Scenario-Based Analysis for 2030 and 2050

Abstract

The transition to sustainable transport poses significant challenges for urban mobility, requiring shifts in fuel consumption, emissions reductions, and economic adjustments. This study conducts a scenario-based analysis of Budapest’s transport energy consumption, emissions, and monetary implications for 2020, 2030, and 2050 using the Budapest Transport Model (EFM), which integrates COPERT and HBEFA within PTV VISUM. This research examines the evolution of diesel, gasoline, and electric vehicle (EV) energy use alongside forecasted fuel prices, using the ARIMA model to assess the economic impact of transport decarbonisation. The findings reveal a 32.8% decline in diesel consumption and a 64.7% drop in gasoline usage by 2050, despite increasing vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Electricity consumption surged 97-fold, highlighting fleet electrification trends, while CO2 emissions decreased by 48%, demonstrating the effectiveness of policies, improved vehicle efficiency, and alternative energy adoption. However, fuel price forecasts indicate significant cost escalations, with diesel and gasoline prices doubling and CO2 pricing increasing sevenfold by 2050, presenting financial challenges in the transition. This study highlights the need for EV incentives, electricity price regulation, public transport investments, and carbon pricing adjustments. Future research should explore energy grid resilience, mobility trends, and alternative fuel adoption to support Budapest’s sustainable transport goals.